Innovative Study Predicts Future Alcohol Trends
An innovative study called “Calibrated Agent Simulations for Combined Analysis of Drinking Etiologies (CASCADE)” is designed to predict future alcohol consumption trends.
This new study, led by engineering professor, Robin Purshouse, attempts to explain and predict population-level alcohol trends over time using agent-based models.
Partner institutes include the Sheffield Alcohol Research Group, the Center for Addiction and Mental Healthin Canada, and joining the project in the fall, New York University.
The first aim of the project is to implement four theories of alcohol use behaviors using secondary data sets from England and the US that extend from 1979 to 2015.
Agent-based modeling can be used to translate observations of how individuals consume alcohol and interact with others within their local environments into simulations. These simulations code the individual actions and interactions as rules followed by large numbers of computer-generated “agents.” The researchers then use the agents to generate population-level outcomes, which they can compare to historical trends and use to predict future outcomes.
Social contagion and other theories
First the research project will model the social contagion theory, which posits that alcohol consumption behaviors may spread through a population like a contagious disease, transmitted from person to person through their social ties.
Other theories the researchers will model include the rational choice theory, which suggests that each person chooses the amount of alcohol to consume by weighing the costs and benefits of that choice.
Third, the cohort specific exposure theory, which asserts that alcohol use behaviors vary between groups of people due to group differences.
Finally, the maturing-out theory proposes that people use alcohol more heavily when they are young and consume less as they age and when they take on new social roles, such as marrying or having children.
The research team is well aware that each model on its own cannot fully explain alcohol use patterns and behaviors. After all, the decision to consume alcohol and how much to use is likely influenced by a range of factors not fully represented in any single theory.
To mimic the real world, the multiple theories need to be combined into hybrid models, which must again be calibrated by empirical data from the five populations under study.
Predicting population trends and policy effects
Once researchers identify the best-fit models, predicting population-level trends in alcohol poisoning and liver cirrhosis will be the next step in validating the system models.
In the final modeling phase, the study team will assess alcohol-related policies to determine their influence on alcohol-related acute and chronic disease outcomes.
Part of the analysis will be historical—what effect did alcohol policies, such as increasing alcohol taxes, have on alcohol poisoning and liver cirrhosis in the past.
Another part of the analysis will be forward looking; if the models predict the future well, then they may be used to predict the potential effects of future policy changes.